Judith likes to be alone. And she likes to keep some space in her calendar.
A while ago, Judith told me she would ‘maybe’ come to my party. I know what that means: she is not going to come. But to literally say so is a bit rude.
I admit that I sometimes use the word ‘maybe’ in that way myself. Even though it violates my principle of straightforward communication.
Anyway. Today I want to share a study with you. About probability phrases.
Words like almost, always, often, usually, sometimes and rarely. And maybe.
A number of researchers (three) asked people to translate probability phrases to a percentage. A small risk of side effects, does that mean a 3% or a 15% probability?
The answers vary enormously.
Generally, for instance, is interpreted as meaning between 60% and 95%. With an average estimated probability of 76%.
Words at both ends of the probability spectrum had the smallest range in interpretation. However, even the words never (average estimation 6%) and always (average estimation 96%) are – remarkably – interpreted differently.
What to take away from this?
In general: be careful with probability phrases. Specify probability phrases with a percentage when possible. And perhaps use illustrations.
The same goes for other qualitative words like big, long and many.
With maybe, the average estimation is a 41% probability. So, possibly, Judith didn’t participate in this research.
Regards,
Arnaud